St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Senzel hit sacrifice fly to right, Steer scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8DeJong doubled to right, Gorman scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 34–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Myers grounded out to second, Stephenson scored, Senzel to third.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Nootbaar doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Steer homered to left (352 feet), McLain scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2DeJong homered to left center (410 feet), Yepez scored and Gorman scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Stephenson singled to left, McLain scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1McLain doubled to left, India scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Fair odds
- CIN -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +2 Elo | CIN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.