Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4
- Steven MatzPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to right, Freeman scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Betts homered to left center (405 feet), Vargas scored and Peralta scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Betts scored, Martinez to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- LAD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 9–1427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.