Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman homered to center (404 feet), Burleson scored.8–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–14
- 8Contreras homered to center (404 feet), Nootbaar scored and Goldschmidt scored.8–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–11
- 8Mercado scored on Almonte wild pitch, Goldschmidt to second on wild pitch by Almonte, Nootbaar to third on wild pitch by Almonte.8–11
- 8Mercado scored on Almonte wild pitch, Goldschmidt to second on wild pitch by Almonte, Nootbaar to third on wild pitch by Almonte.8–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–10
- 8Nootbaar singled to right, Donovan scored, Nootbaar to second, Mercado to third.8–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 7Muncy homered to right (385 feet).8–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 6Freeman homered to center (412 feet), Peralta scored, Rojas scored and Thompson scored.7–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Rojas singled to right, Vargas scored, Peralta to second.3–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 4Arenado homered to left center (405 feet), Goldschmidt scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Mercado stole home, Goldschmidt stole second.2–7
- 4Mercado stole home, Goldschmidt stole second.2–7
- 3DeJong homered to left (392 feet).2–6
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 8–1427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–0 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.