Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jesse WinkerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Knizner homered to left (401 feet), Burleson scored, Edman scored and Nootbaar scored.1–18
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–18
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–18
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–18
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–18
- 8Edman singled to right, DeJong scored, Burleson to second.1–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–13
- 8Burleson singled to right, Donovan scored, DeJong to third.1–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 8Gorman homered to right (375 feet), Nootbaar scored and Knizner scored.1–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 8Edman homered to right (402 feet).1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 8Winker singled to left, Wiemer scored, Miller to second.1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Gorman doubled to right, Edman scored and Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Goldschmidt reached on infield single to second, DeJong scored, Nootbaar to second, Edman to third.0–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- MIL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +10 Elo | MIL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 6–1328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.