Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting3-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6DeJong homered to center (419 feet), Donovan scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Arenado reached on infield single to third, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- MIL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +9 Elo | STL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 7–1428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.