Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Anderson homered to center (406 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Wiemer homered to center (417 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Donovan singled to left, Edman scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Arenado homered to left (394 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Adames hit a ground rule double, Miller scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.0 – 5.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 7–1328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.