Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dylan CoveyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Outman homered to center (407 feet), Muncy scored, Heyward scored and Vargas scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Vargas walked, Smith scored, Heyward to second, Muncy to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 43–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Castro scored on throwing error by pitcher Ferguson, Vázquez safe at third on error.3–2
- 7Castro scored on throwing error by pitcher Ferguson, Vázquez safe at third on error.3–2
- 7Castro scored on throwing error by pitcher Ferguson, Vázquez safe at third on error.3–2
- 7Castro scored on throwing error by pitcher Ferguson, Vázquez safe at third on error.3–2
- 6Gallo homered to center (433 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Betts singled to center, Outman scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Buxton homered to center (412 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 16–73rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.