Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer homered to left center (376 feet), Buxton scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Freeman singled to center, Rojas scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Jeffers sacrificed to first, Buxton scored, Kirilloff to second.3–0
- 4Castro singled to left, Taylor scored, Gallo to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Farmer singled to left, Solano scored, Farmer to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -117
- MIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +21 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 16–62nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.