Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Thompson walked, Taylor scored, Muncy to second, Freeman to third.8–9
- 12Pitch 6 : Ball 48–9
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball 38–8
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 28–8
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–8
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 10Martinez singled to center, Smith scored.8–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 10Vázquez walked, Larnach scored, Castro to second, Farmer to third.8–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 48–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 37–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 9Buxton doubled to center, Taylor scored.7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 8Peralta doubled to right, Vargas scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Larnach homered to center (415 feet), Buxton scored and Polanco scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored, Freeman to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Vázquez scored on Ferguson wild pitch, Kirilloff to second, Solano to third.3–5
- 7Vázquez scored on Ferguson wild pitch, Kirilloff to second on wild pitch by Ferguson, Solano to third on wild pitch by Ferguson.3–5
- 4Polanco homered to right (392 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 15–63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.