Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Peralta scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 9Heyward doubled to right, Vargas scored, Peralta to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Gorman homered to right (400 feet), Edman scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Martinez homered to left center (408 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Burleson doubled to left, DeJong scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Contreras singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- LAD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 5.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +14 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +17 Elo | STL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 9–1527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 4–1 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.