Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Outman hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.5–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 8Martinez hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored, Smith to third.4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 7DeJong homered to left center (393 feet), Arenado scored and Edman scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Mercado singled to right, DeJong scored and Edman scored, Donovan to third.3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5DeJong singled to left, Arenado scored, Edman to second, Burleson to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Peralta scored on a balk, Smith to second on a balk, Freeman to third on a balk.3–4
- 5Peralta scored on a balk, Smith to second on a balk, Freeman to third on a balk.3–4
- 5Freeman singled to left, Heyward scored, Peralta to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Mercado singled to left, DeJong scored, Donovan to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Peralta hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 5.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +2 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.