St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar singled to center, Edman scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Senzel doubled to right, Steer scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5McLain grounded out to second, Newman scored, Friedl to third.7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 4Nootbaar singled to center, Edman scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Edman tripled to center, DeJong scored and Donovan scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3McLain homered to right center (385 feet), Friedl scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Goldschmidt homered to right (358 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Burleson singled to right, Donovan scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Edman hit sacrifice fly to center, DeJong scored.2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −13 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.