St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar doubled to left, Edman scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 32–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Burleson hit sacrifice fly to left, Donovan scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Nootbaar scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Rosario doubled to left, Kwan scored, Zunino scored and Straw scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Kwan singled to left, Giménez scored, Straw to second, Zunino to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 10–1426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.