St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar reached on infield single to first, Burleson scored, Mercado to third.3–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 7Steer singled to left, India scored and McLain scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6Fairchild doubled to left, Stephenson scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Senzel hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Nootbaar homered to right center (397 feet).2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4McLain homered to right center (358 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Donovan homered to right center (393 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Newman singled to left, Senzel scored, Fairchild to second.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Newman doubled to center, Senzel scored and Stephenson scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Stephenson singled to left, India scored and Steer scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +9 Elo | STL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.