St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3
- Luke WeaverPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fairchild singled to left, Steer scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Gorman scored, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Sims.2–0
- 8Gorman scored on Sims wild pitch, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Sims.2–0
- 8Gorman doubled to right, Nootbaar scored.1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −11 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 14–1320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.