Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Corey DickersonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Abrams doubled to right, Ruiz scored and Smith scored, Call to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Ruiz singled to center, Dickerson scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Dickerson doubled to center, Candelario scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Perez homered to left (382 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pratto scored on Gray wild pitch, Perez to second on wild pitch by Gray.0–1
- 1Pratto scored on Gray wild pitch, Perez to second on wild pitch by Gray.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +29 Elo | WSH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 7–2029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.