Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Michael ChavisBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey singled to right, Melendez scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Olivares homered to left (452 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Melendez homered to left center (417 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Chavis singled to center, Vargas scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Vargas doubled to left, Smith scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 7–2129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.