Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey homered to right (367 feet), Melendez scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left center (406 feet).5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 8Pasquantino singled to left, Lopez scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Fermin sacrificed to catcher, Melendez scored, Massey to second.3–0
- 5Melendez tripled to right, Perez scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pasquantino doubled to right, Pratto scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.9 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | KC: Josh Staumont (no track record yet) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +39 Elo | STL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 11–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.