St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez doubled to center, Kwan scored and Straw scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Kwan doubled to left, Zunino scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left center (413 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Knizner homered to left (379 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Burleson homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bell singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 11–1525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.