Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Castro scored, Delay to third on wild pitch by Manaea.2–1
- 5Castro scored on Manaea wild pitch, Delay to third on wild pitch by Manaea.2–1
- 1Conforto singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Davis to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Joe homered to left (388 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- PIT +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 16–117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.