San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting2-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Haniger homered to center (419 feet), Davis scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Caratini singled to right, Turang scored, Caratini out stretching at second.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Conforto hit sacrifice fly to right, Wade Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −11 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 15–119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 4–1 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.