San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Conforto homered to left center (373 feet), Estrada scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Johnson walked, Conforto scored, Bailey to second, Haniger to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 42–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Bailey walked, Davis scored, Haniger to second, Conforto to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 41–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Taylor homered to left center (389 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Buxton homered to center (408 feet), Solano scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- SF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–11 | Road vs home | 14–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.