Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Larnach tripled to right, Farmer scored, Larnach scored on throwing error by second baseman Drury.6–2
- 7Larnach tripled to right, Larnach scored on throwing error by second baseman Drury and Farmer scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (414 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Gallo homered to right (349 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Walsh grounded out to first, Renfroe scored, Drury to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Castro sacrificed to pitcher, Farmer scored, Garlick to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Garlick singled to center, Buxton scored, Farmer to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Farmer singled to center, Solano scored, Buxton to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -112
- MIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +32 Elo | LAA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.