Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Renfroe singled to left, Ward scored, Renfroe to second, Ohtani to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Moniak tripled to right, Neto scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Castro homered to left (412 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Kirilloff doubled to right, Farmer scored and Buxton scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Farmer singled to left, Correa scored, Buxton to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Wallach struck out swinging, Drury scored on throwing error by catcher Jeffers, Rengifo stole third.0–3
- 4Wallach struck out swinging, Drury scored on throwing error by catcher Jeffers, Rengifo stole third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–2
- 4Drury doubled to left, Renfroe scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −21 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.