Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thaiss doubled to left, Urshela scored on error, Thaiss safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Gallo.2–4
- 8Thaiss doubled to left, Urshela scored on error, Thaiss safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Gallo.2–4
- 8Thaiss doubled to left, Urshela scored on error, Thaiss safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Gallo.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Kirilloff homered to left (348 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Moniak doubled to center, Neto scored and Thaiss scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Urshela sacrificed into double play, center to first to second, Renfroe scored, Walsh thrown out at first.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Correa doubled to center, Gallo scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +13 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +30 Elo | LAA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 11–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.