San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Kyle GarlickBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garlick homered to left center (427 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Conforto homered to center (413 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Davis scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Davis doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Yastrzemski to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- SF +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +12 | SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +61 Elo | MIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–11 | Road vs home | 14–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.