San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Darin RufBatting1-3
- Ethan SmallPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey hit a ground rule double, Yastrzemski scored.15–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play15–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking14–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 314–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 214–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 114–1
- 7Davis homered to left (422 feet), Wisely scored.14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–1
- 6Schmitt singled to left, Conforto scored, Haniger to second.12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 6Conforto singled to right, Davis scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 310–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 210–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 3Wisely homered to right center (408 feet), Schmitt scored and Bailey scored.10–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 17–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 3Bailey reached on infield single to first, Haniger scored, Schmitt to second.7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Haniger doubled to right, Conforto scored and Davis scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Davis doubled to left, Sabol scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +1 Elo | MIL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 15–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.