San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jeffers homered to left center (433 feet).1–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Julien scored, Solano to second on wild pitch by DeSclafani.1–6
- 4Julien scored on DeSclafani wild pitch, Solano to second on wild pitch by DeSclafani.1–6
- 3Castro stole home, Wallner stole second, Wallner safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.1–5
- 3Castro stole home, Wallner stole second, Wallner safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.1–5
- 3Castro stole home, Wallner stole second, Wallner safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.1–5
- 3Farmer scored, Wallner safe at first, Castro safe at third on fielding error by second baseman Wisely.1–4
- 3Farmer scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wisely, Castro safe at third on error.1–4
- 3Farmer scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wisely, Castro safe at third on error.1–4
- 3Farmer scored on error, Wallner safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wisely, Castro safe at third on error.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Julien hit sacrifice fly to right, Wallner scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Wallner doubled to right, Castro scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Schmitt singled to right, Yastrzemski scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Julien homered to left center (407 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- SF +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +33 Elo | MIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 14–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.