Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- J.P. FrancePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O. Miller homered to left (413 feet), Anderson scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 8Anderson doubled to center, Taylor scored and Winker scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4O. Miller scored on pickoff error by catcher Diaz.0–2
- 4O. Miller scored on pickoff error by catcher Diaz.0–2
- 3Wiemer homered to center (430 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.