Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Darin RufBatting2-2
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-3
- Shane McClanahanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mejía hit sacrifice fly to left, Raley scored.0–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- MIL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +73 Elo | TB 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 19–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.