Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich reached on infield single to second, Turang scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 33–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Walls walked, Franco scored, Paredes to second, Arozarena to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 43–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Paredes walked, Raley scored, Arozarena to second, Franco to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 43–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Margot singled to left, Walls scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 4Bethancourt homered to center (415 feet).3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Anderson homered to left (408 feet), Adames scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- MIL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 20–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.