Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Lowe singled to left, Arozarena scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Anderson singled to center, Yelich scored, Tellez to second.6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Contreras homered to center (427 feet), Miller scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4J. Lowe homered to right (367 feet), Arozarena scored and Ramírez scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Tellez homered to center (429 feet), Ruf scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Adames homered to right center (392 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −6 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +78 Elo | TB 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 21–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.