Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Julks doubled to right, Bregman scored and Alvarez scored, Peña to third.12–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Turang scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–1
- 6Alvarez homered to left center (383 feet), Maldonado scored, Dubón scored and Bregman scored.10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Bregman singled to left, Meyers scored, Dubón to second, Maldonado to third.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Alvarez homered to right center (425 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Dubón homered to left center (409 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Meyers grounded out to third, J. Abreu scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Tellez homered to center (386 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Maldonado homered to left (411 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Julks homered to left center (401 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.