Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4
- Brandon BielakPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Anderson homered to right center (375 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 7O. Miller homered to center (416 feet).0–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Adames homered to center (429 feet), Yelich scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 14–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.