San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4
- Julio TeheranPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey doubled to center, Schmitt scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Schmitt doubled to center, Sabol scored and Yastrzemski scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Conforto homered to center (424 feet).2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Wade Jr. singled to center, Schmitt scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −9 | SF: Scott Alexander (no track record yet) · MIL: Julio Teheran (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 15–95th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.