San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Blake SabolBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisely hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Sabol homered to right (369 feet), Conforto scored and Haniger scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 3Yastrzemski homered to right center (418 feet).1–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Contreras homered to left (417 feet), Miller scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Miller singled to center, Wiemer scored and Yelich scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Anderson doubled to right, Contreras scored and Miller scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Contreras singled to right, Yelich scored, Miller to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +7 Elo | MIL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 15–1214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 5–1 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.