Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Giants- Austin SlaterBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski homered to right (414 feet).4–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 7Haniger doubled to left, Davis scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–14
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–14
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–14
- 7Slater doubled to left, Johnson scored and Crawford scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 7Bailey homered to right (392 feet), Schmitt scored.3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Schmitt singled to left, Wade Jr. scored and Haniger scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Haniger doubled to left, Davis scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Castro grounded out to first, Joe scored, Bae to second.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Suwinski homered to right (396 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Davis singled to right, Johnson scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Hedges grounded out to third, Palacios scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Slater homered to center (410 feet), Crawford scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 15–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.