St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Palacios homered to right center (426 feet).5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 7Hayes homered to left center (421 feet), Suwinski scored and Santana scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Santana hit a ground rule double, Marcano scored and McCutchen scored, Suwinski to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Hayes singled to center, Suwinski scored, Bae to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Arenado homered to right center (403 feet), Gorman scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Gorman singled to center, Goldschmidt scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Donovan homered to right (387 feet), Edman scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- STL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −6 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 12–1323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.