Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski reached on infield single to third, Joe scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to left, Sabol scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 6Joe doubled to left, deflected by third baseman, Reynolds scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bae scored on error, McCutchen out at second, Reynolds safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.7–3
- 6Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bae scored on error, McCutchen out at second, Reynolds safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.7–3
- 6Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bae scored on error, McCutchen out at second, Reynolds safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wisely.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Yastrzemski scored on Keller wild pitch.6–3
- 5Yastrzemski scored on Keller wild pitch.6–3
- 4Reynolds singled to center, Bae scored and McCutchen scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Flores singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Davis to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Hayes tripled to left, Joe scored and Castro scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Castro singled to left, McCutchen scored, Joe to second. Joe safe at third, Castro safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Sabol.2–1
- 3Castro singled to left, McCutchen scored on error, Castro to second, Joe to second, Joe safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Sabol.2–1
- 3Castro singled to left, McCutchen scored on error, Castro to second, Joe to second, Joe safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Sabol.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3McCutchen doubled to left, Bae scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Bailey singled to left, Sabol scored, Haniger to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +23 Elo | SF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.