St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Angel PerdomoPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman homered to right (404 feet), Goldschmidt scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Santana singled to left, Joe scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Joe doubled to left, Reynolds scored and Bae scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Hayes homered to left center (405 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Contreras homered to right center (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −18 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 13–1321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.