Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting4-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández reached on infield single to second, France scored and Haggerty scored.6–16
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–16
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–16
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–16
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–16
- 9France singled to right, Caballero scored.4–16
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–16
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–16
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–16
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–16
- 8Garver homered to left center (432 feet).3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–15
- 7Lowe homered to right center (387 feet), Seager scored.3–15
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–15
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–13
- 7Semien homered to left (402 feet), Garver scored and J. Smith scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–10
- 5Taveras homered to left (408 feet), Heim scored and Duran scored.3–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 4García reached on infield single to third, Semien scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pollock scored, Crawford out at second, Caballero to third.3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Caballero doubled to left, Murphy scored, Pollock to third.2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Lowe singled to center, Seager scored.1–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | SEA: Bryan Woo (no track record yet) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +72 Elo | TEX 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 17–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.