St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Walker homered to left (430 feet).4–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Contreras homered to left center (404 feet).3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5García homered to left center (408 feet).2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Semien doubled to right, Garver scored, Taveras scored on throwing error by second baseman Gorman and Duran scored, Semien to third.2–5
- 4Semien doubled to right, Garver scored, Taveras scored on throwing error by second baseman Gorman and Duran scored, Semien to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Lowe homered to center (425 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Garver doubled to center, Jung scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Arenado homered to left center (406 feet), Goldschmidt scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +63 Elo | TEX 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 20–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.