Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Bryce MillerPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wong singled to left, Hernández scored, Caballero to second.3–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Caballero singled to left, Suárez scored, Hernández to second.2–12
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 7Suárez doubled to left, France scored.1–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6Heim homered to right (342 feet), Lowe scored and Jung scored.0–12
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 6Jung singled to center, Seager scored, Lowe to second.0–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6Seager doubled to right, Jankowski scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Grossman doubled to center, Garver scored and Jung scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Garver doubled to center, García scored, Jung to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3García doubled to center, Lowe scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Seager homered to center (435 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -125
- SEA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +19 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +85 Elo | TEX 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 18–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.