St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to left, Semien scored, Seager to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Arenado doubled to left, Gorman scored, Arenado to third, Edman thrown out at home.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Semien singled to left, Duran scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Taveras grounded out to shortstop, Garver scored, Duran to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Duran doubled to left, Heim scored, Garver to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2DeJong singled to left, Contreras scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −7 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +88 Elo | TEX 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 6.51st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 19–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.