Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fairchild doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Steer to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 8Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Gorman homered to right (385 feet), Donovan scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Newman hit sacrifice fly to center, Stephenson scored, Fairchild to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Fairchild singled to left, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Donovan singled to left, Walker scored, Carlson to second.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Walker homered to left center (431 feet), DeJong scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Arenado homered to left (429 feet), Donovan scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 12–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.