Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fraley homered to left center (404 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Miller singled to center, Wiemer scored, Yelich to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–0
- 5Caratini homered to right center (429 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Monasterio homered to center (400 feet), Miller scored and Singleton scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- MIL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 14–1624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.