Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Abraham ToroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4
- Alek ManoahPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Biggio grounded out to shortstop, Chapman scored, Merrifield to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Miller doubled to left, Wiemer scored and Yelich scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Kiermaier tripled to right, Merrifield scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Toro homered to right (347 feet), Anderson scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -113
- MIL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −16 | MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 14–94th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.