Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette singled to center, Biggio scored, Lukes to second.7–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 9Varsho homered to right (376 feet), Merrifield scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Julien homered to left (383 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Castro homered to center (419 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Wallner homered to center (409 feet).4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Castro homered to center (406 feet), Kirilloff scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −11 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR 0 Elo | TOR 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 15–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.