Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-6, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen homered to left (367 feet), Varsho scored.20–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play20–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 120–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking20–1
- 9Varsho singled to right, Merrifield scored.18–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play18–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 118–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking18–1
- 9Chapman homered to left center (384 feet), Biggio scored.17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play17–1
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to left (424 feet), Kiermaier scored, Lukes scored and Clement scored.15–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–1
- 8Chapman singled to right, Bichette scored.11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 5Paredes homered to left (381 feet).10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. out stretching at second.10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 5Springer scored on Burdi wild pitch.9–0
- 5Springer scored on Burdi wild pitch.9–0
- 5Kiermaier hit sacrifice fly to right, Jansen scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Varsho scored on Burdi wild pitch, Jansen to third on wild pitch by Burdi.7–0
- 5Varsho scored on Burdi wild pitch, Jansen to third on wild pitch by Burdi.7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 5Varsho singled to right, Chapman scored and Merrifield scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Springer reached on infield single to shortstop, Jansen scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Jansen doubled to left, Merrifield scored, Jansen to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Springer homered to left (405 feet).2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 22–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.