Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Belt singled to left, Kirk scored, Merrifield to second.4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 9Varsho homered to center (446 feet).3–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Raley homered to right (399 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Arozarena homered to right (391 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Merrifield homered to center (406 feet), Chapman scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Paredes singled to center, Díaz scored, Franco to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Siri homered to center (417 feet), Bethancourt scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Arozarena scored on error, Bethancourt safe at first on error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −19 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Trevor Kelley: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +24 Elo | TB 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 21–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.